PERSIAN SPIRIT

Where PERSIAN SPIRIT sits in the cohort

Body-ratio space — body aspect (depth-to-height) on X, leg-to-body ratio on Y.

Light blue = full cohort. Amber = Cable Bay progeny in cohort. Green star = PERSIAN SPIRIT. Dotted lines mark cohort median on each axis.

Dynamic motion scorecard — 12 features

Each feature was selected because its distribution tracks career prizemoney outcomes independently of sale price and sex, on the 8,450-horse overpricing pool. Most are measured from his parade-day walk. Each tile shows his value, the cohort median, and his percentile on the favourable-pointing axis.

Track form to date

Overpricing risk profile

The model's most validated commercial use is identifying horses that under-deliver relative to sale price. Across the eligible cohort of mature racehorses with sale price, horses in the biomech bottom-50 under-deliver (PM < 0.5× price) 62% of the time vs cohort baseline 45%; biomech top-50 under-deliver only 26%. The signal is strongest in the $150k–$400k price band (22-percentage-point gap). This section sets PERSIAN SPIRIT's biomech score against that cohort pattern.

PERSIAN SPIRIT's biomech net score of +6 places him at the 93th percentile of the cohort. In the ≤$50k sale-price band, horses with similar biomech profiles under-deliver against price 8% of the time — versus the cohort baseline of 14% in this band and the biomech bottom-50 rate of 20%. That places him in the LOW overpricing-risk bracket.

This is a population-level prior, not an individual prediction. Some horses in the bottom-net cohort do over-deliver (~16% of them) — race form is the better individual signal as it accumulates.

Maximum defensible bid — for racing return alone

Each ceiling below is a career-prizemoney percentile from the top-quartile pool (1,156 horses, net ≥ +3). Above each line you are paying for outcomes that historically happened less than the labelled share of the time. Excludes stud value, residual sale value, and breeding income — add those to the ceiling on your own terms.

How the 75th-pctile ceiling held up across the cohort

Backtest across 4,036 horses (raced pool, in-sample for descriptive ceiling; out-of-sample binomial test p < 10⁻¹⁸⁰ on train-pre-2021 / test-2021+).

Caveats baked in: cohort PM distributions are long-tailed (~5% of horses above the 75% ceiling still over-deliver — Autumn Glow was one). Stud, breeding, and residual sale value not included. Cohort median PM/price ratio is below 1.0× across every biomech tier — the market overpays for racing return alone, by design. This ceiling is for buyers playing the racing-PM scoreboard; if you have your own model for breeding return, add it on top.

Cable Bay — sire profile

Cable Bay's full racing-database record across 166 raced progeny. Used to put PERSIAN SPIRIT's biomech profile in lineage context.

Distribution of best ratings across all rated Cable Bay progeny in racing-db. Amber line marks the class threshold (90+); green line stakes class (100+).

Top Cable Bay progeny by best rating

Top earner: UNCOMMON JAMES with $1,786,350 in career prizemoney.

Cable Bay at the sales — PERSIAN SPIRIT's percentile within the lineage

25 Cable Bay progeny appear in the Eight Furlong cohort (median sale price $22,000). Where does PERSIAN SPIRIT rank against them on the reliable body-ratio dimensions?

Each panel: histogram of one body-ratio across the 25 Cable Bay progeny in the cohort. Green vertical line = PERSIAN SPIRIT. White dashed line = Cable Bay median.

Cable Bay context — fit, fingerprint, and placement

Three descriptive views of PERSIAN SPIRIT against Cable Bay's known stock. Built from 16 Cable Bay progeny in the parade cohort with ≥5 racing starts and stud-filtered. With this sample size we can show distribution shape and where he sits within it; we cannot fit a Cable Bay-specific predictive model (that needs n ≈ 400+).

1 · Distance fit — what Cable Bay progeny actually run

Cable Bay's progeny race most at sprint (48% of starts).

Band definitions: Sprint ≤1300m · Mile 1400–1800m · Middle 1900–2200m · Staying 2200m+

2 · Cable Bay biomech fingerprint vs cohort

Median z-shift of Cable Bay's progeny on each of the twelve scoring features, relative to cohort. Features with |shift| > 0.3σ (marked ★) characterise the sire's stamping. 8 of 12 features show a Cable Bay signature.

3 · PERSIAN SPIRIT's placement within Cable Bay's distribution

Percentile rank of PERSIAN SPIRIT within Cable Bay's progeny (vs the same rank within the full cohort). Features marked ★ are atypical for the sire (bottom-10% / top-90% of Cable Bay's distribution, OR sire-percentile diverges from cohort-percentile by > 30pp). 5 features place PERSIAN SPIRIT as atypical for the sire — worth a second look at conformation in those areas.

Empirical anchor — what 25 horses with similar body-ratios actually did

25 horses from the racing cohort with the closest body-ratio profile to PERSIAN SPIRIT (Euclidean distance in z-space across the four reliable body ratios).

Top 10 nearest neighbours

Summary

PERSIAN SPIRIT's parade biomech sits on the favourable side of the cohort across 8 of twelve signal-bearing features. The coherence of the unfavourable signals across structurally-related joints is what makes this read confident: when a horse lands in the bottom quartile on multiple independent signals all pointing the same direction, that's the cohort pattern the model exists to surface.

Set against the $6,000 purchase, the read places him in the low-risk bracket of the overpricing distribution we have measured across 8,450 raced horses.

His best mark is Chest depth / body length (91th percentile on the favourable axis).

The sire-context blocks above are populated against 16 Cable Bay progeny in the parade cohort who have raced to maturity — enough to put this horse against real lineage data on every reliable axis. Position within that distribution is the most directly applicable signal we have for a Cable Bay-line horse.